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Why I was so sure that NOVARTIS would rise from 78.50 to above 83.50


Because I correctly identified the Elliott Wave FLAT correction in Novartis, shown on the hourly chart above. It played out from the high on 31.7.2018 at 83.66 to the low on 7.9.2018 at 78.30.
It was a textbook FLAT because
Wave B, i.e. the rise from 15.8.2018 to 21.8.2018 retraced all of Wave A, i.e. the full decline from 31.7.2018 to 15.8.2018, but it did not register a new high above the high from 31.7.2018 (83.66)
Wave C (i.e. the decline from 21.8.2018 to 6.9.2018) was a textbook five-wave decline with Wave 3 of 3 gapped down
Wave C spanned exactly 1.618 times the length of Wave A.

Do have a look at the section “My Approach” on this webpage/homepage. There, I describe and explain the Elliott Wave patterns and Fibonacci correlations.

I did have a target for NOVARTIS-Wave C at around 78.50. I became certain that Wave C had ended and the stock would turn up when it rose above 76.50. This 9.7.2018 was the day when I recommended purchase of NOVARTIS in the expectation of a rise at least above the high from 31.7.2018 at 83.66. Even more likely, I did look for a rise to 93 and possibly a new all-time high above 104.

The next resistance levels are shown on the chart below.

I am publishing these charts on my BLOG in the hope that this Elliott Wave A-B-C correction (Wave C=1.618xWave A) impresses YOU. YOU may also think that if YOU had known about the restructuring and staff reduction YOU would have made money because the stock rose on that news. BUT, the rise is was most likely to unfold not because of the news but because the mood of the collective had reached a high level of pessimism in June and the rise would have materialized with ANY news, even with news that in the downtrend would have taken as bearish.

I will ADD to the position if the next resistance levels are broken.

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Rolf Bertschi