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SWISS MARKET INDEX - Will it ever see 10,000?


Like most other stock market indices the SMI entered a correction in January 2018. And, it recovered from this correction thanks to Nestlé, Novartis and Roche. Since 7th July it has again corrected and the question is: 
Is the pattern of this year part of a bigger triangle which originated at the peak of 2015? If it is a triangle as a consolidation the uptrend should resume and the SMI should rise to another new all-time high and thus above 10,000. 
Alternatively, because the SMI registered a new all-time high on 24.1.2018 at 9616.38 this high could have marked a long-term top and the correction from January 2018 ould be the beginning of a long-term downtrend. 

The present triangle could be Wave 4 within the uptrend from the low of 2009 or it could be Wave 4 of the uptrend frm early 2016. 
To give the question "Will the SMI ever see 10,000?" some probability, I would say that:
It is clear that a break of 8800 would signal more downside risk to 8600 and that the BULLISH TRIANGLE INTERPRETATION IS PREFERRED UNLESS THE SMI BREAKS BELOW 8600.
Minor support is now at 8800 and 8740. 

Rolf Bertschi