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My best forecasts

MY best FORECASTs

In September 2001, I called for the end of the US secular uptrend of the 1980s and 1990s (Sell-of-a-Generation). I did forecast a series of bear and bull markets (Triangle), which would relieve the Secular Momentum Indicator from its extremely overbought level which it had reached in 2001. I forecast this Triangle and the decline in the Secular Momentum Indicator to persist until around 2010. Moreover, I forecast that this secular downtrend would be followed by a new secular uptrend (Buy-of-a-Generation), beginning at the next decade, i.e. around 2010. See the chart below. It shows that this 10-year outlook was stunningly correct.

 On this chart you can see that the decline in the Secular Momentum Indicator (marked blue on the right chart) has matched my forecast almost perfectly. Also you can see that my forecast in 2001 of a new secular bull market to start around 2010 has become stunningly accurate as the  S&P Index  entered this secular uptrend following the financial crisis in 2009. Furthermore, I did forecast the first bear market within this Triangle beginning in 2001 to last until 2002 or even 2004. As we know the first bear market ended in 2003.

On this chart you can see that the decline in the Secular Momentum Indicator (marked blue on the right chart) has matched my forecast almost perfectly.
Also you can see that my forecast in 2001 of a new secular bull market to start around 2010 has become stunningly accurate as the S&P Index entered this secular uptrend following the financial crisis in 2009.
Furthermore, I did forecast the first bear market within this Triangle beginning in 2001 to last until 2002 or even 2004. As we know the first bear market ended in 2003.

 

 
  In August 2008  my Elliott Wave Counts was that a FLAT correction A-B-C would unfold from the high in 2000. This implied that the decline from the peak in 2008 would take the  S&P 500 Index  down to the low which it had registered in 2003, by 2009. I did not expect a financial crisis but a Major bear market to last until 2009. It was this low of wave C of Wave IV which I identified as a Buy-of-a-Generation and from which I forecast a new secular uptrend  that would take the S&P 500 Index to new all-time highs. As you can see on the chart below has the S&P 500 recovered roughly following the line that I was predicting in 2008..

In August 2008 my Elliott Wave Counts was that a FLAT correction A-B-C would unfold from the high in 2000. This implied that the decline from the peak in 2008 would take the S&P 500 Index down to the low which it had registered in 2003, by 2009. I did not expect a financial crisis but a Major bear market to last until 2009. It was this low of wave C of Wave IV which I identified as a Buy-of-a-Generation and from which I forecast a new secular uptrend  that would take the S&P 500 Index to new all-time highs. As you can see on the chart below has the S&P 500 recovered roughly following the line that I was predicting in 2008..

 

 
  In July 2016 in my Chart Outlook  I projected that the  MSCI World Stock Market Index  will rise in Wave 5 to much higher Levels above 1000. This forecast was based on my Elliott Wave Interpretation. I labeled the correction from April 2015 to February 2016 as Wave 4 o the uptrend from 2009. Being an expert in Elliott Wave Analysis I realized that in order to complete the uptrend from 2009, the World Index will have to trace out Wave 5 upwards towards 1100. The Chart below is an update of this forecast from July 2017 when the World Index traded at 1080.

In July 2016 in my Chart Outlook I projected that the MSCI World Stock Market Index will rise in Wave 5 to much higher Levels above 1000. This forecast was based on my Elliott Wave Interpretation. I labeled the correction from April 2015 to February 2016 as Wave 4 o the uptrend from 2009. Being an expert in Elliott Wave Analysis I realized that in order to complete the uptrend from 2009, the World Index will have to trace out Wave 5 upwards towards 1100. The Chart below is an update of this forecast from July 2017 when the World Index traded at 1080.

 

 
 In my Chart Outlook of  14th April 2016  I projected that the  DAX  would trace out Wave 5 of the uptrend from 2009. This Wave 5 would push the DAX to new all-time highs above 13,000. Following this forecast has the DAX moved higher to reach 12,900 in June 2017.

In my Chart Outlook of 14th April 2016 I projected that the DAX would trace out Wave 5 of the uptrend from 2009. This Wave 5 would push the DAX to new all-time highs above 13,000. Following this forecast has the DAX moved higher to reach 12,900 in June 2017.

 

 
 In my Chart Outlook of  14th January 2011 , I stated that the SECULAR downtrend in the  Nikkei 225 Index  had bottomed and that it will enter a new uptrend. At that time the Nikkei was trading around 20,500. Even the Tsunami of March 2011 could not prevent the Nikkei from entering the new secular uptrend. It was just delayed until November 2011 when it turned up. Following this low the Nikkei embarked on this new SECULAR uptrend and rose to the latest high at 21,000 in June / August 2015. This means that from the date of publication the Nikkei doubled (from 10500 to 21000).

In my Chart Outlook of 14th January 2011, I stated that the SECULAR downtrend in the Nikkei 225 Index had bottomed and that it will enter a new uptrend. At that time the Nikkei was trading around 20,500. Even the Tsunami of March 2011 could not prevent the Nikkei from entering the new secular uptrend. It was just delayed until November 2011 when it turned up. Following this low the Nikkei embarked on this new SECULAR uptrend and rose to the latest high at 21,000 in June / August 2015. This means that from the date of publication the Nikkei doubled (from 10500 to 21000).

 

 
  In May 2014  I predicted that  Apple  would rise from $500 to between $900 to $1000. This forecast was based on my interpretation of the typical bubble pattern. The Chart at right Shows the rise from this point of May 2014 from $75 to above $150. Adjusted for the stock split the level at $150 equals to the target of 1000 I had in 2014.

In May 2014 I predicted that Apple would rise from $500 to between $900 to $1000. This forecast was based on my interpretation of the typical bubble pattern. The Chart at right Shows the rise from this point of May 2014 from $75 to above $150. Adjusted for the stock split the level at $150 equals to the target of 1000 I had in 2014.

 

 
 In  2003 , when  Schlumberge r traded around $30 I forecast a new secular uptrend based on the upturn in my Secular Momentum Indicator to persist for the coming years and to take SLB to new all-time highs.

In 2003, when Schlumberger traded around $30 I forecast a new secular uptrend based on the upturn in my Secular Momentum Indicator to persist for the coming years and to take SLB to new all-time highs.

 On the chart you see that my forecast of this secular uptrend was matched by the real price almost perfectly. The uptrend did lead the price of  Schlumberger  from the 20s in 2003 towards a double-top in 2007 at around $110. Moreover, based on the double-top in the Secular Momentum Indicator I did forecast a new major decline in SLB. In reality, the decline took SLB from $110 back to the $30s.

On the chart you see that my forecast of this secular uptrend was matched by the real price almost perfectly. The uptrend did lead the price of Schlumberger from the 20s in 2003 towards a double-top in 2007 at around $110. Moreover, based on the double-top in the Secular Momentum Indicator I did forecast a new major decline in SLB. In reality, the decline took SLB from $110 back to the $30s.

 

 
 In 2001 I published my Long-term Chart Outlook for US Dollar / Swiss franc, trading at that time at 1.72. I did forcast that the US Dollar would decline over the coming decade to below parity and possibly to the lower end of the dashed downtrend line at around 80 Rappen. Following this forecast, over the years from 2001 to 2011 USD/CHF declined to 70 Rappen on 9th August 2011.

In 2001 I published my Long-term Chart Outlook for US Dollar / Swiss franc, trading at that time at 1.72. I did forcast that the US Dollar would decline over the coming decade to below parity and possibly to the lower end of the dashed downtrend line at around 80 Rappen. Following this forecast, over the years from 2001 to 2011 USD/CHF declined to 70 Rappen on 9th August 2011.

 In the Swiss Magazine "Weltwoche" I projected that Gold has entered a new secular uptrend. This uptrend would push Gold higher of the coming decade. During this uptrend Gold would reach Levels above US$ 500 and possibly new all-time highs. Following my forecast, Gold surged to 1900 in August 2011. In other words, the SECULAR uptrend, which I identified based on my Momentum Indicators, Gold rose by over 500%.   The chart below is from a series of presentations, which I gave in early 2012.  I did identify the pattern in Gold as the long-term TOP, which should be folllowed by a long-term bear market. As you are well aware of did the Gold price enter a bear market in 2013.

In the Swiss Magazine "Weltwoche" I projected that Gold has entered a new secular uptrend. This uptrend would push Gold higher of the coming decade. During this uptrend Gold would reach Levels above US$ 500 and possibly new all-time highs. Following my forecast, Gold surged to 1900 in August 2011. In other words, the SECULAR uptrend, which I identified based on my Momentum Indicators, Gold rose by over 500%. 

The chart below is from a series of presentations, which I gave in early 2012. 
I did identify the pattern in Gold as the long-term TOP, which should be folllowed by a long-term bear market.
As you are well aware of did the Gold price enter a bear market in 2013.

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