SWATCH - Time to BUY or Time to SELL?

The quarterly chart below shows the RISE and FALL of the world famous company SWATCH. The following observations can be made:
- In the secular rise from the early 1990s, the stock price increased by 1020% and peaked in November 2013 at 606.50.
- After having registered the 2013 high, Swatch entered a secular decline, which reached a low on April 7, 2025 at 120.30. This means the stock has declined by 80%.
- It is interesting to note that in the secular decline, the correlations between the three downlegs and the two recoveries have pointed to a mega support range between 138 and 114. Not surprisingly, this is the range within which the stock registered the April 2025 low at 120.30.
- A break of this mega support range would indicate more weakness to the long-term support around 60.

On the next lower chart, I take a look at the short-term chart pattern to see if the mega support holds and if new BUY signals are possibly triggered.

The following observations can be made from the 4-hour chart below:
- Swatch registered a low on April 7, 2025, at 120.30.
- After having registered the April low, it rose by 25% and registered four daily peaks in May at 150.25. These peaks were reached just below the major resistance at 150.85 to 152.15.
- Since the May highs, Swatch has declined by 11% to the low of June 13 at 133.75.
- The pattern from the high of April 24, 2025 at 145.10 can be labeled as a potentially bearish head and shoulder top.
Clearly, new SELL signals would be triggered if the supports at 131.70 and 128.30 are broken.
In addition, major SELL signals would be triggered if the supports at 120 and 118 are broken.
For the chart to trigger new BUY signals, Swatch would have to break above the resistances at 143.10, 145.20, 151-152 and 157.50. Such buy signals would indicate higher targets around 180.