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Bertschis Chart Outlook Blog

Welcome to MY BLOG – YOUR guide to the financial markets!
In my BLOG, I analyze current market trends, make informed forecasts, and share insightful charts to help you better understand the dynamics of the financial world.
In all my blogs, I offer a chart outlook with clear buy and sell signals.

UBS - your bank since over 160 years - But, what about the next few weeks and months? I offer you my chart outlook.

My forecast for UBS is based on three key levels.
At the low of April 7, 2025, at 20.66, the decline from February 4, 2025, at 32.88 retraced exactly 61.80% of the rise from March 7, 2022 at 13.10 to the high of February 4, 2025.
At the high of May 19, 2025, of 28.10, the rebound from the low at 20.66 of April 7, 2025, has retraced 60.90%m (close to the ideal 61.80%) of the February-April decline.
In the long run, UBS is likely to break either above 32.88 or decline below 20.66.
The break to the upside would become the preferred scenario if the resistance at 28.10 can be broken.
Take a look at the next lower chart, where I take closer look to this key level.

As I stated above, a break above the 61.80% retracement at 28.10-28.50 would shift the odds to the bullish scenario. Although, a major decline could still start from one of the higher resistances 29 or 30. But, the bullish odds would increase with each resistance that is broken. In other words, investors could BUY or ADD to positions with the break above 28.10-28.50.
As always, I am taking also a look at the downside risk. Based on the wave correlations, SELL signals would be triggered with the break of the supports at 25.80, 24.80 and 23. Obviously, a break of the supports would shift the odds to the bearish outlook in which a break of the key level 20.66 would become more probable.

Based on the hourly chart, shown below, it becomes obvious that the first half of the month of June will be most critical as UBS is likely to test the resistance range 27.50 to 28.30. If a TRIANGLE is formed, then it could take some more time until a break upwards or downwards is signaled.
I WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THE CHART OF UBS and see if I shall BUY long or BUY Puts.

Rolf Bertschi