NESTLE - Buy, Hold, or Fold? Nestlé's Chart Under the Microscope
In today’s uncertain market, the question on many investors’ minds is simple: Is Nestlé a buy—or will it fall further? As one of the most recognized consumer goods giants, Nestlé’s chart offers more than just lines and candles—it reveals investor sentiment, strategic pivots, and potential for future returns. Whether you’re holding stock, scouting for entry points, or considering cutting loose, let’s dive into what the chart says about Nestlé’s next chapter.
THE SECULAR UPTREND PEAKED IN 2022
The first chart below shows Nestlé from the start of the secular uptrend on January 2, 1975 at an adjusted price of SFr. 1.16 (1 Franc and 16 Rappen). The uptrend persisted for 46 years to the high of 129.80 on January 4, 2022. Probably, you think that the price history does not matter and the price action in the 1970s or 1980s or 1990s is not relevant to your present assessment of the future of Nestlé. BUT, in my view, the chart does NOT mirror a fundamental history of the everyday work that has been done by thousands of workers and management within the company over the past few decades, nor does it mirror the growth rate of sales, earnings or dividends nor product or management changes or like.
IT IS NOT THE FUNDAMENTALS, IT IS THE MOOD OF THE COLLECTIVE - GREED AND FEAR
THE CHART MIRRORS THE MOOD OF THE COLLECTIVE. Price changes trigger human mood changes and human mood changes trigger price changes. The continuous interaction of millions of human beings (from all over the world) with the single price of the stock of Nestlé and the rising price forces more and more humans to BUY. In the final years, the uptrend becomes steeper and steeper as the optimism and euphoria becomes stronger and stronger. The peak in the stock price is reached when the maximal euphory and the highest available number of buyers is long the stock. In other words, then the last buyer is “infected” by the Nestlé price. Ironically enough, the peak in price is reached amidst a global euphory.
I wrote in my CHART OUTLOOK SWISS EQUITIES in 2022 that the secular uptrend was likely to be broken.
See in the menu of this website under “previous publications”.
The chart above shows the BUBBLE in the price of Nestlé from 1975 (1.163 on January 2, 1975) to 2022 (January 4, 2022 at 129.80).
The chart below shows the decline from the peak on January 4, 2022 at 129.80 to today’s (July 29, 2025) intraday low at 71.84. This is a decline of 45%. Of course, unless you had seen my chart technical warnings in 2022, you might have expected the stock to rise forever. No wonder… after the uptrend had persisted for 46 years. Be aware, that, like everything else in this universe, also the mood of the collective is cyclical. Although it spans generations, it is doomed to top and break.
My most important message from this post is THAT NESTLE HAS DECLINED in two corrections (a-b-c-x-a-b-c) with both corrections pointing to the MEGA SUPPORT RANGE between 72.50 and 70-68.50.
MY RECOMMENDATION FOR NESTLE
If you have retained Nestlé through the 40% decline (which I hope you did not) or, if you bought (too) early, then you could hold onto it. Based on the importance of the support range 72.50-68.50, I am looking for at least a medium-term rebound. If you want to buy, you could look at the medium-term and short-term charts below.
The chart above shows the decline from the top in January 2022 to the low of December 20, 2024, at 72.82, with the Fibonacci correlation (factor 1.618) of wave c relative to wave a of the a-b-c correction at 72.60.
The chart above shows the a-b-c decline from the top of March 24, 2025, at 91.72 with the Fibonacci correlation of wave c being 1.618 times the length of wave a at 72.83.
THE FINAL DECLINE COULD REACH A MEDIUM-TERM LOW IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS
The chart below shows what could be the final 5-wave-decline in which wave 5 takes the form of a WEDGE. I am not sure if the final low was registered already today at 71.90, or if one more new low around 71-70.50 could be reached. However, when I look at the tick chart of 17:20 (not shown here), then Nestlé traded as low as 70.34. In fact, I WOULD BUY NESTLE if it breaks above the resistances at 73.40, 74.50 and above 76. PLACE THE STOP AT 68.
Note that if the final decline was a WEDGE, then, in its initial reversal, Nestlé could surge to 76.
