ROCHE HOLDING - Chart Signals
Roche reports a jump in net income by 17% and confirms its full-year outlook.
Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche today posted better-than-expected net income for the first half of 2025 amid strong sales of asthma and breast cancer treatments. ($9.85 billion), while the Basel-based group confirmed its full-year outlook.
Here is my CHART OUTLOOK with BUY and SELL signals.
The chart below shows today’s jump from Wednesday’s close at 261.30 to today’s intraday high at 267.80. Today’s opening rally marked the top to the rally of 6.7% from the low of June 22 at 251.10. Following the intraday high of this morning, Roche entered a short-term consolidation. It could be forming a horizontal triangle and, upon its completion, it could rise to 272 where it will meet strong resistance.
Clearly, a failure to resume the rally would result in new short-term SELL signals if the supports are broken at 259 and 254.
See the next lower chart where I am assessing the medium-term and long-term outlook.
MY BEARISH SCENARIO WITH THE SELL LEVELS
The rally, which I showed on the upper chart and which includes today’s strong opening due to the earnings release, could mark the top of wave “e” of a horizontal triangle (a-b-c-d-e) (See chart below) . Wave “e” was 0.618 times as long as wave “c” and wave “c” was 0.618 times the length of wave “a”. These correlations are typical within horizontal triangles. If the triangle was completed today or if it will be completed with some more strength around 272, then Roche could enter a major decline to below 240. This means that the crash of March-April 2025 was the first downleg in a major A-B-C decline, in which Wave C could take Roche to 215. In this bearish scenario, new SELL signals would be triggered with the break of the supports at 254, 244 and 232.
MY MEDIUM-TERM BULLISH SCENARIO WITH THE BUY LEVELS
In my second scenario, the current rally could extend to the key resistance level at 273. In the best-case scenario, a rally to 280 would be possible. A break above this level is rather unlikely at this point.
Short-term BUY signals would be triggered if the resistances at 268.50 and 273 are broken.
MY LONG-TERM RECOMMENDATION:
LONG-TERM INVESTORS CAN RETAIN ROCHE AND WAIT IF THE RESISTANCE AT 280 IS REACHED. HOWEVER, A FAILURE TO BREAK ABOVE 280 COULD RESULT IN NEW LONG-TERM SELL SIGNALS.
MOREOVER, LONG-TERM SELL SIGNALS WOULD BE TRIGGERED IF THE SUPPORTS MENTIONED ABOVE (254, 244, 232) ARE BROKEN.
THE SECULAR UPTREND WAS BROKEN IN 2023
See also the next lower chart to see that the secular uptrend from the 1990s was broken in the 2022-2023 decline of 47%. This means that a break of the lows from April 2024 at 213 and from June 2018 at 206 would signal more weakness to the next support range between 195 and 120. For Roche to have a chance of reinstating the secular uptrend, it would have to rise above 295 and 335.
